As Iraq’s blocs continue to push for, make and break alliances it is becoming increasingly likely that the country may have yet another compromise candidate. Current PM Nouri al-Maliki was himself a compromise candidate, coming into the job from obscurity but going on to make a name for himself and become the most important figure in his party, the Islamic Dawa Party.
Having provoked the ire of his rivals outside of Dawa over the years, there are, however, some who will be vehemently against another Maliki term. One alternative candidate, within Dawa itself, is Sherwan (a Kurdish name) al-Wa’ili, the present minister of state for national security affairs. According to reports, he is also preferred by Dawa’s “Iranian wing” (or a specific part of Dawa comprised of individuals closer to Tehran than other members of the party).
Sherwan alWa’ili is part of Dawa’s other faction (the Islamic Dawa Party – Iraq organisation), which splintered from IDP during Saddam’s rule. The splinter group is part of the same State of Law coalition that contested the elections.
Ranj
I think there’s a definite possibility that neither Allawi or Maliki will become prime minister. They both have too many warts. The problem is that neither will acknowledge that and will drag out the talks for months as a result.
I agree Joel, the talks will definitely be dragged on just so the parties can see what they can get from the whole process.
The only problem is what do Allawi and Maliki do if they don’t become prime minister, not sure about Allawi since he has many strong and prominent personalities in his coalition but with regard to Maliki he’s essentially who SoL’s electoral base voted for and want to become PM ( ie the attraction was Maliki and not necessarily the SoL).
I have no idea what Maliki would do. allawi I would assume would go back to being an absentee parliamentarian. Isn’t that what he’s already known for? He’s hardly ever in Iraq.
I don’t think he can go back to being an absentee parliamentarian, he now clearly has democratic legitimacy and represents a major section of Iraqi society so expectations are not quite what they used to be, they’ve gone up and he has to act accordingly.
What Maliki would do is the more difficult question. Unlike Allawi, he might be considered/consider himself too big to simply “go into opposition”. But then again, he might not have a choice in the end.